Despite it not quite being halfway through the
season, coming after the Christmas/New Year run of games and the 3rd
round FA Cup exit, now would seem like an appropriate time for a mid-season
review of Reading’s season.
The one idea that can sum up the season thus far is the effect
of diminished and enhanced expectations; a theory best surmised in analysing
our exits at the first hurdle of both cup competitions this season.
Our defeat to Charlton wasn’t the end of the world and was
generally viewed as a chance to concentrate on our league form. On the other
hand, an emphatic (if not on paper but on grass) defeat to another in form team
from League One, Stevenage, has prompted much navel-gazing.
So, putting aside the difference in historical size of Charlton
and Stevenage, what caused such a large discrepancy in the reactions to the
respective defeats? It should be noted that seven of the thirteen players who
featured in our League Cup exit also made an appearance on Saturday.
The answer is the difference in expectations of Reading’s capabilities
between the two points in the season. The Charlton defeat occurred after only
one win in our first four league games and a 13th place in the
Championship. So a defeat to a high flying, inform team in the division below
us was almost to be expected.
Fast forward four months or so and a run of seven wins in
ten games, putting us into the play-offs, the expectations going into the
Stevenage game were much higher than they were ahead of the Charlton game.
Admittedly, a terrible “performance” on Saturday exacerbated the reaction but
sitting in 5th place gave many fans (and perhaps the team) a sense
of entitlement; an effect of enhanced expectations if you will.
The value of this in-depth look at these two games that were
not even in the league comes from our form in the Championship between
September and January.
Ten wins and six draws from twenty games in that period,
including wins over numerous rivals, has catapulted us from lower mid table bona
fide play-off contenders. A solid, and sometimes spectacular, centre back
partnership between Alex Pearce and Kasparss Gorkss and Adam Federici’s
underrated performances has allowed Reading to eke out results without needing
to score too many at the other end of the pitch.
However, impressive as four defeats in twenty games and 5th
place in the league is, there is a flip side to it. A commonly used yardstick
for promotion is an average of two points per game and no team in the
Championship is achieving this currently. This hints at a league in which many
teams are very evenly matched thus making our current 5th place look
a bit false; a result of outstanding current form rather than consistency. In
each of our last three seasons back at this level, taking into account the number
of games played, 39 points for 5th place is the lowest total required
at the turn of the year.
A top goalscorer with
six goals and the four main strikers contributing just over 50% of our total league
goals (17 out of 32) tells its own story on Reading’s area of improvement and
why they haven’t been able to push on to that magical two points a game mark.
At the start of the season, especially after the departure
of Shane Long, there would have been very few Reading fans who could have
confidently stated that we would sit 5th going into 2012. The fact
that we are is testament to Brian McDermott, for the second season in a row,
forging together a team and playing style that is successful. On that basis,
Reading fans should be particularly pleased with our season thus far.
But the concerns that were expressed at the close of the
transfer window, when we sat 20th in the league, still remain; overdependence
on Jobi
McAnuff and Jimmy Kebe for creativity, a lack of variation in the striking
department and a lack of depth in quality both at centre half and on the wings.
Impressive seasons from Federici, Pearce, Gorkss, Mikele
Leigertwood, McAnuff and Kebe have masked these flaws so far, as has the rather
average standard of the Championship this year.
All in all, Reading’s season has the potential to go one of
two ways still. If the above players can keep up their standards and one of the
strikers finds a run of goalscoring form, a play-off place is eminently achievable.
McDermott’s record in the second half of each of the last two seasons makes
this very plausible, if you believe in the repetition of history.
Equally as plausible however is a couple of injuries or a
loss of form to key personnel would lead to a reverting of type and a mid table
finish. The matches against Cardiff and Stevenage seem to hint at a relatively
small squad feeling the effects of a hectic Christmas/New Year period, although
a FA-cup free rest of the season may alleviate the impacts of squad tiredness.
Finally, no predictions will be made this time around; even
if they are proven emphatically wrong to the benefit of us all.
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