Writing a season preview for Reading with so much dependant on what happens over the next 27 days seems a little bit pointless but nonetheless, here are some thoughts on the forthcoming campaign.
First things first, it is no understatement to say that the most important developments in the month of August for us will not be played out on the pitch but in the boardroom and at the negotiating table.
Without a shadow of a doubt, the targets for the season depend on whether Shane Long stays at the club or not. With the futures of other key players such as Adam Federici and Jimmy Kebe looking secure, Long is the last player with a question mark over his head. Should he leave the team looks an awful lot less threatening and a mid table finish will be the best to hope for. Should he stay, a play-off push is a reasonable target. He is that important. A front two of Long and Hunt/Manset is more appealing as Long’s ability to play 46 games a year masks the other strikers inability to do the same.
But here is the rub; the same thing was said at exactly the same point last year regarding Gylfi Sigurdsson and look how last season ended. Players stepped up, a new system was found and (relative) success followed.
Further mirror images of last pre-season? The lack of signings prior to the opening day of the season (Williams last year, Khumalo this), the lack of positive talk out of the club about possible signings (a tactic used every year by the club management to drive down a target’s price that both other clubs and our own fans have yet to work out) and the pessimism among the fan base.
However, what’s different this time around is not the lack of investment but the appearance of allowing the squad to stagnate and be weakened, particularly in central defence. The loss of Matt Mills would not be the end of the world if there was experience cover at centre back but this is currently not the case. If there were, there would be less concern about the paucity of our resources there and less anger about the sale of Mills not being reinvested.
Furthermore, despite the faith in Brian McDermott being well founded, it is not to be expected of a manager to dig out diamonds from his squad every season and if Long leaves, that will be needed again. Perhaps Manset with a pre-season behind him is the answer or a fully-fit Hunt but both of those are not entirely plausible right now. McDermott seems less pleased with the club’s monetary policy now 18 months into the job though that is a personal observation rather than anything concrete.
In theory, a staring XI of Federici; Griffin, Pearce, Khumalo, Harte; McAnuff, Karacan, Leigertwood, Kebe; Long, Hunt is competitive at this level with more than adequate cover in most positions with Andersen, McCarthy, Cummings, Robson-Kanu, Tabb, Gunnarsson, Howard, Manset and Church to name seven. However, once injuries and suspensions strike, the squad looks very inexperienced and slightly threadbare. It will take a lot of stepping up from the likes of Williams (Brett and Marcus), Antonio and Morrison as well remarkable progress from youngsters like Gage, Obita and Taylor to supplement the first team.
Beyond the issues of who will be playing for Reading come the start of September, the remainder of the transfer window is the acid test for the club’s ambition and targets. If Long was to be sold to a fellow Championship club (Leicester being an admirer), even for an exceptional price, this would smack of a club more than happy to plod along at this level and occasionally mount a play-off push. It could determine the medium-term future of the club as a whole. But is this a bad thing?
It’s quite a nihilistic view on football as success in sport is dictated by winning trophies and gaining promotions but is the prize worth the cost or is the journey better than the destination?
As unambitious as it seems, the Championship, for me, is the league to be in right now for the sheer unpredictability of every game. Yes, promotion is the end goal but it’s not the be all and end all as it was when we were promoted back in 2006. Been there, done that, got the T-shirt now keep giving me the entertainment we’ve had over the last four seasons at this level and it cannot be denied we have had entertainment.
But the fear is that we would drop back to the lower reaches of the table with relegation a distinct possibility in the near future. That is unlikely this season as there is enough quality in the squad (with or without Long) to comfortably survive but the lure of the club to future signings will be made or break this year and potentially in the next four weeks.
Overall, I predict us to finish in the top 12 but not to mount a serious push for the play-off places but as anyone that read this blog in February knows; I’m rubbish at predictions and this one could be null and void by the end of the month.
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